Indian Stock Market - Time to be Cautious

The Markets as they opened today morning have been really heartening. After a downslide over the past 7 sessions, today the markets have opened on a high note, in the positive territory, that certainly a good news for the Investors. But is that really a good news as the sentiments have been positive because of external factor of Fed Interest Rate cut. It has not been on the positive industrial growth or the positive GDP growth as overall factor. Though the morning session itself is volatile after good opening, there still is room for some corrections to come in place during the mid session and the closing session as the pressures are building up.

Overall the time is to be cautious and is to play long term. One should not get carried away with the market fluctuation and should hold the positions rather than trying to square off. Its time to be in the Cash segment for long term rather than Futures.

The Stocks that are to be watched and held for a longer term would include –

Bombay Dyeing for around 740/- as the cue is to double up with a target price of around 1500/-

Zee Tele for around 210/- as the target price could go around 300/-

HCL Tech for around 230/- or 240/- with target price around 350/-

PSU Bank Stocks like Allahabad Bank and Union Bank.

Now these are few stocks that are supposed to go good over a period and hence GOOD Time to purchase them and hold them. But sure to be cautious as while I write this, the Stock Markets have already started shedding the opening gains and are showing too much volatility. Sensex after a good rebound again is hovering around 17000 and Nifty below 5000 mark.

As had written last night, my personal feeling is still the same, markets would not cross over to regain so early as this weekend.

Regards

Mayank Trivedi

Indian Stocks - Market Mayhem Part 2

Tuesday’s Stock Market Mayhem reminded me of the previous post that I had written on October, 17, 2007. And this time post the mayhem, there seems to be a good news “per say” for the market bourses. The US Federal Reserves Rate has been cut by .75 basis points and that as the past suggests would mean the inflow of Foreign Funds (US) would flow in to India and the other Asian markets. That would mean the markets would open with positive note.

Ah but a catch there that US Fed asserts that there would still be downside risks to the growth. Now what does that mean??? Dow still was reeling negative and was not giving much positive indication, so what do we infer??

If we take cue from the Fed Interest Cut then the market should open in positive territory with FFI Fund inflow, but on the contrary, if we take the Dow Jones cue, then the markets would still be on the negative territory.

Here, what is the sentiment of the market players, not the specialists and the experts but those who hail from the retail market and who are the avid watchers of the stock market in India? The sentiment is, that if Market fares better in the coming days, and the Nifty does not fall below 4500 points, it would be able to recover faster. Translating that for Sensex then the circuit break point would be 15000.

Please recall that in my post on October 17 last year I had mentioned that the Indian Stocks are being overvalued and I strictly feel that there should be another correction in the Sensex and Nifty for between 5 to 10%.That means from current prices the sensex and Nifty should be corrected around 15200 and 4550 Respectively. As per the performances of the various Industry Sectors, that would be the correct valuation of the stocks.

For say in the coming days, both Nifty and Sensex go below the levels of 4500 and 15000 respectively, then there are hugh chances that they would hover in the range of 4000 to 4500 and 14000 to 15000 respectively for quite some time. Umm let say till budget time. Post which, if we get a populist Budget, the market would get the support and come over the bearish shadows as they are hovering at present.

Whatever we say, the morning opening Bells would provide us the clearer picture and Wednesday’s Market performance would more or less decide the fate for Nifty as well as Sensex, as to whether they would go below the benchmarks of 4500 and 15000 or they would rebound back. The Opening session and the mid way would be the deciding factor for more…..

Regards

Mayank Trivedi

Bharat Ratna Award - 2008, Seems to be a Stampede

I was just following the recent Spat or what otherwise we can say Controversy on the Top of the List Civilian Award - "Bharat Ratna". I mean the names of the Politicians are cropping up in tons and well most of them have been just the Regional Politicians with Little or NO work accomplishment by them on the National Levels. Well No names to be taken in particular but we all certainly know that.None of the Politicians today stands at a level or has served the country in the manner earlier one's have. In fact Politicians MUST NOT be considered for the coveted award any more.
I happen to go through the List of Award Winners as avilable on the following Sites -
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Category:Bharat_Ratna_recipients
and
http://india.gov.in/myindia/bharatratna_awards_list1.php

I mean if we go through the List of 40 Awardees who go the Honour, there is a great sense and Logic in honoring them, but if we compare the current Wish lists of various Political Parties, it seems they are just trying to get a Political mileage by asking for Bharat Ratna for their Candidate whom they seem to be considering as "Deserving".

I guess the Coveted Singers like Pandit Bhimsen Joshi, Kathak Dancer - Sitara Devi and Many more who have served and who took Indian Music to the World Stage must be considered

I was just going through various statements by various people and well was shocked to read that One of the Politicians Suggested to Abolish the Coveted National Award for hte sake of cleaning the Political Stampede in the Rush for the Bharat Ratna Award. Isn't it a shame that due to some petty mess, we Abolish the Highest Civilian Award??

What I guess would be better is to Ban Politicians and Government Officials from being Awarded. I mean its real dishonor to the Award if anyone from the Regional presence is nominated and / or a Regional Political Outfit Leader makes a statement / speech that if the Award is Honored, I would deny that. Just makes me feel sick.

With Politicians being Considered under Public Affairs, then well its very much sane for the regional politicians to be proposed in the list, but, I mean Bharat Ratna as name suggests is for those who have served for the cause of the entire Nation and are National Pride........Why bring regionalism and Biasness for this Award??? Moreover, don't you all there agree that the Politicians need to do Something OUTSTANDING to get the Award and none of the present day's Politicians have that sort of Background and Remarkable Achievement on National Level (Atleast as I guess so.)

Also Government has a choice of not to Confer the Award every year.

-- Regards
Mayank Trivedi

Carla Bruni - Racy pics on the Net

Was just going through the Times Mumbai edition for Friday, January 18, 2008, and found the article on Racy Pics of French President’s Girl friend Carla Bruni. Certainly the pictures would have left Mr. President red in face. But for more so the MEA (Ministry of External Affairs) must have been further in for a problem as to what treatment to provide Carla Bruni with. If in case she accompanies French President on his India Visit. Apparently She has been accompanying him on his most of the visits to various nations.

Now the issue in front of MEA would be – How can they have a decision to honor female who has posed Topless and more so nude on various pics? This dilemma would be fuelled by the point that nudity in India is a Taboo and against Law. Oh so what she has not posed nude in India, all of us understand, but something that has already had an effect on the reputation of French President, should MEA take a chance of Protest against decision to give her the treatment as First Lady – In case they decide so.

As if the erstwhile dilemma was not enough for MEA official, that the story uncovers now a new twist in the entire tale!!

I guess its better to wait and watch as the drama further unfolds.

Mayank

Delhi Auto Expo - Raised Some Thoughts and Questions

The Tata Dream – Dream of India – Nano, showcased in the Delhi Auto Expo and clearly identifies the mass market that is still untouched by the most of the automobile giants. The Dream had initially taken its shape with Late Sanjay Gandhi dreaming about a Sub 1 lakh car and Maruti was born, but Maruti over a time captured the seat of sub 2 lakh car, so the sub 1 lakh car segment was still a distant possibility, but Tata’s made it possible with the 660cc Nano.

The introduction of Nano has certainly started a Price war in the Indian Automobile market, and as the news in the market is that Bajaj is already in the fray to introduce its sub 600 cc car it means Maruti 800 will have quite a competition.

Many have said that Nano is more to be pitched against Bikes, but I totally disagree and strongly believe that Nano can not be taken to as the alternate to the Bikes as the Bikers the way we call the Bike Lovers across the globe, have distinct pulse and certainly cars can't replace that feel that a Bike gives you.

Why do we forget that R11 and another Yamaha 1000 cc bikes have already been launched. Kawasaki is already on the verge of Introducing its ZX6r and otherr variants in the market. Suzuki too is in line for launch of its own heavy bikes...

So overall the Indian automobile market is all set to glow with more and more models and variants being launched.

But the question is - "Do we have enough infrastructure to handle the load being introduced with the launch of various models??" While Introduction of the Higher variants in Bike segment would still be a niche market with the HARDCORE Bikers going in for those Bikes, but cheaper cars with easy finance schemes would mean more cars on the Roads, means more traffic and more chaos.

Don't we all think that while the automobile giants are enthusiastically moving ahead with introduction of more models at fierce price wars, the Government must also keep pace with them to have the infrastructure in place to accommodate the increasing passenger vehicles on the roads?

Do you all agree that just like the Entry Tax in London for the Car owners, there should be a Entry Tax for the Cars owners in atleast all the metropolitan cities?

Do you think that the RTOs should come heavily on the Car Purchasers for evading the Duties Levied in a particular city (read Mumbai) by registering their vehicles in surrounding areas outside the Municipal limits and still plying the vehicle on the city roads? (Especially when the address provided is totally Fake).

Regards

Mayank Trivedi

Web - http://www.myopinions.name

The Perfect U-Turn - BCCI negating to Call Back The Team India

In my previous Article – “Pawar's Power Punch - But Why Wait Till Adelaide ” I happen to write that “I was just amused as to whether it is Power Punch or a typical Pawar Punch oops meant Political Punch” and well it proved to be the exact Political turn when I read the Newspaper on Sunday.

Wonderful, or rather we should say marvelous. Do we expect this kind of turn around by BCCI? Well for those who know the history of the BCCI answer lies in a BIG YES.

Moreover now what we get to know is BCCI itself is on the wrong end that it failed to provide legal help to Bhajji when the adjudicator aka Match Referee Mike Procter himself consulted a Lawyer on the subject matter of alleged Racial Abuse by Bhajji. More so when BCCI has atleast 3 prominent personalities on its panel and all the three are lawyers. More so, BCCI spokesperson claimed that they didn’t know that Mike Procter consulted any Lawyer and no such name is there on any ICC Official Release. But its for all of us to know that Mike Procter did consult a Lawyer and the name was clearly stated in the release from ICC. Does anything else require to be highlighted for the lapse on BCCI’s part?

Now for say its turning out to be quite a show from BCCI and reminds me of the movie – “Kabhi Haan Kabhi Naa” and all I can do is to laugh at the matter. Well laugh because the entire country is just amused, I guess so and everyone is eagerly waiting for the next move or should we say next scene of the comic movie.

Isn’t it better for the country to stand united at this moment and raise a united voice to call back the Team India? Or shouldn’t Government simply Ban BCCI from calling the representative team as Team India?

Isn’t it simply a mockery that one day they call it a matter of nations’ pride and very next day they make a statement that ridicules the entire population’s thoughts?

For me to say the least, BCCI if continues to tour in the situation where Bhajji’s fate is hanging it would better for the sponsors to walk out of the contracts, better for the media to provide the coverage and more so the Government should tell BCCI to Stop using the name – Team India and stop the players from using the Tri-color on their helmets and other accessories.

Regards

Mayank Trivedi

Web - http://www.myopinions.name

Pawar's Power Punch - But Why Wait Till Adelaide

As had written in my previous two blog posts (http://wordsfromsoul.blogspot.com/2008/01/bcci-vs-icc-what-if-bcci-backs-off.html and (http://wordsfromsoul.blogspot.com/2008/01/racial-slurs-cricket-australia-and.html), I had been closely following the ongoing India-Australia series and the danger looming over it post the Controversial Sydney Test.

And well today got to read the Article – “Clear Bhajji or Tour’s off: Pawar” (http://epaper.timesofindia.com/Default/Client.asp?Daily=TOIM&login=default&Enter=true&Skin=TOI&GZ=T), the first page article on Time of India (Mumbai Edition).

While going through the article I was just amused as to whether it is Power Punch or a typical Pawar Punch oops meant Political Punch. If BCCI is so much worried about the overall pride of the Country, why is Team India still in Australia? I mean this is ridiculous for team India to wait till the Adelaide test for the final verdict. Its pretty clear that the interest of ICC to delay the test is in actuality the interest of Cricket Australia kindly read Financial Interest of Cricket Australia.

It is pretty well known that there is a huge amount hanging in dis-balance and comprising of sponsorship, telecast rights, ticket sales and quite a few other item heads that’s not going to be there in case the tour is called off. Well yes some one may say that the penal clause would get the required reprieve to Cricket Australia, but please do note that the Penal clause would not fetch Cricket Australia anything more than $2.5 or so from BCCI, and for BCCI that’s just a peanut amount (We all know that and are proud to know that, let me repeat there, BCCI is one of the richest Sports Club and certainly richest Cricket Club in the World). Cricket Australia would still be in huge losses even if they receive the Penal amount.

Now here, I refer back to the Article that says – Clear Racial Charges Against Harbhajan or Team India Will Head Home and on the details it reads before Adelaide Test. Well if Team India has to head home, it has to head home now, and not just before Adelaide Test. Why should India even play the Perth Test?

My Point comes from the another fact as highlighted in the referred article that the hearing should be held within 7 days from the day the appeal against a decision is received. Ah and now I guess its already been atleast 5 days when the Team India and BCCI filed the appeal against the Ban.

Moreover, let me also highlight the reason for Calling Team India back home – “Complain Against Harbhajan was heard immediately after the test on last Sunday and it ran late in the night on that day. Why is that the Complaint against Mr. Brad Hogg is still pending to be heard on January 14, 2008 just couple of days ahead of Perth Test?”

Isn’t it quite clear that even at the Administrative Levels in Cricket and ICC, they are playing the game of RACISM against Team India?

Its high time that BCCI puts its foot down and not only gets Bhajji cleared from the controversial decision of the ban but also to have the Sydney test Annulled and the result being declared Null and Void

Regards

Mayank Trivedi

Web - http://www.myopinions.name

BCCI v/s ICC - What if BCCI Backs off

Post the Racial Slur incident and the poor umpiring left Team India in fury, BCCI provided a good support to the Team that represents India. Why not? After all it was a matter of Self Respect. But the interim stop gap arrangement solution as provided by ICC is nothing but an arrangement that is like offering lollypop to the child. It has still not resolved the entire case. The whole Saga is still very much under the scrutiny that means there is still a strong chance that Team India might call of the tour, certainly backed by BCCI.

Now here what Opinion I have received from the blog readers is that BCCI should actually Call Back the Team India and should Back off from the ICC Affiliation also. What BCCI should then do is start its own league as it has already started the IPL for 20-20 Tournament. What they rather say is BCCI should then recognize ICL and from there on start an entirely different league –

ICL to be the league for 20-20 matches and IPL for one dayers. BCCI can then organize the Test Matches under its own name.

What say if the World’s Richest Cricket Club aka BCCI breaks up its contract with ICC and starts its own league, what I feel is that if that happens, certainly, ICC would go Berserk and might even run to losses to be declared Bankrupt. Today, though BCCI holds the reign from the financial angle, it still does not hold that power within the ICC ranks and is still treated shabbily. Sydney tour and the Racial Slur Gate incidents are the clear examples of this.

As a Avid Cricket follower, I am just following the entire episode and am just waiting for what happens on the Brad Hogg Case where he has been charged by the Indian Captain and Vice-Captain for calling them Ba****ds. The hearing is scheduled for January 14, 2008, just a couple of days before Perth Test. I am just pondering if Hogg would also be handed over the similar sentence as Bhajji? And if yes then wouldn’t the Punter’s Team resist against that? Wouldn’t the so called PRIDE of Team Australia be hurt? I am just waiting for the outcome of the entire episode, what would it be like?

Last but not the least am waiting if at the end if the things don’t get neutralized, would BCCI call for ICC to Annul the match.

Regards

Mayank Trivedi

Racial Slurs, Cricket Australia and the Sydney Test

Sydney Test has been marred by poor Umpiring and enough has been written about it by various columnists and the Sports journalists. Umpiring Blunders and 9 of them, 8 against India and 1 against Australia. But bigger show was the allegation on Harbhbajan Singh by Symonds, the official Complain and Ricky Ponting alias Punter’s guys backing it up.

Interestingly nothing was heard by the umpires and still Harbhajan Singh was handed ban of 3 test matches. Don’t you people think that this is indeed a very well planned and executed strategy by Punter and gang from Cricket Australia?

Punter’s biggest trouble on this tour had been Harbhajan. Interestingly he has got out to Bhajji for 8 times, highest for any Indian Bowler. Bhajji happened to be his on field TORMENTOR, and when he could not tackle the pressure in a gentlemanly approach, ah certainly the old bullish way of Cricket Australia came into being.

Interestingly, no body heard anything other than Symonds and 5 of the Australian Cricketers Testify. No records either Audio or Video were and are available as a proof of incident. Then what is that worked against India – RACISM, I would definitely term it as RACISM.

As Kumble rightly said there was just one team playing with the spirit of Game and fighting against all the odds. Not just playing against Australian 11 but also against another team of 2 – Buckner and Benson. More than the Game of Team Australia, their On and Off Field pressure Techniques got them the win in the Match.

If Cricket is still a game of Gentlemen, that I hardly believe Specially in case of Australian Cricket who introduced the art of Sledging and Bullish Behavior to the World of Cricket.

The entire episode reminds me of Chandrapaul or another West Indies Player that if Australia plays a fair game, then most team in the world can beat them.

ICC should simply Annul the Game even if the records associated are annulled. The players (gentlemen of course) would not mind as they know Sydney Test is one of the MOST Marred Tests Match we ever witnessed. (Wish could have said for future also, but with Cricket Australia behaving as it is, I doubt)

Regards

Mayank

Grey Side of Mumbai

It’s been quite a while that I had been away from my blog area for my busy schedule. Today when I sat down in the New Year to write my first post of the year, I could not control my thoughts on the event that occurred in Mumbai on the start of this New Year 2008.

What a shame and what a setback to Mumbai’s pride as a safe city. I had been a big time admirer to the openness and the freedom for Females to move around at anytime of the day, without any fear. But with the Mob Molestation of a female and another incident where one Spanish minor was molested has really put me down. This is absolutely errant behavior of those so called Mumbaiites.

And what the Police heads have to say is that the Media actually blew the incident out of proportion. It required the Deputy CM to come in the picture and tell the Police department to take the matter in hand and get the culprits to their rightful sentences. This is what I say is a ridiculous situation. I mean nobody was to rescue the females and the guys accompanying them? Isn’t it a shame to the So Called Image of Mumbai?

We the Mumbaiites used to have so much pride on the clean Image of Mumbai, but with the Mumbai Police coming out in the manner it did after the incident, put Mumbai in further shame. What Police department doing was more of Moral Policing, finding the Drunken Drivers and keeping them at a Bay rather than stopping such idiotic incidences.

I mean almost 150 odd police personnel and 125 of the Private Security Guards at and around the area were missing when the incident occurred. Most of the passerby were also silent spectators - Shame a real Shame.

Regards

Mayank